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Closing summaryOn December 12, 2024, the domestic stock market showed a certain differentiation trend and characteristics. The following is a summary of the closing of the day and a forecast analysis of the stock market tomorrow.-Macro factors: From a macro perspective, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and other departments recently issued the Notice on the Full Implementation of the Personal Pension System. Since December 15, 2024, the implementation scope of the personal pension system has been expanded to the whole country, and the product range has been further enriched, which will bring long-term and stable capital inflows to the capital market and form a certain favorable support for the stock market as a whole. In addition, the central bank conducted a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of 66.1 billion yuan today, and the winning bid rate remained the same as before, maintaining a stable market liquidity.

-plate rotation expectation: the strong performance of today's big consumer plate is expected to continue tomorrow. With the arrival of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, the performance of consumer stocks is expected to be improved, thus attracting more capital attention. At the same time, the active concept of state-owned enterprise reform in Shanghai may also drive the relevant sectors to follow suit. For the insurance, banking and other sectors that fell today, it is expected that there will be a certain repair market tomorrow, but the overall increase may be limited.-plate rotation expectation: the strong performance of today's big consumer plate is expected to continue tomorrow. With the arrival of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, the performance of consumer stocks is expected to be improved, thus attracting more capital attention. At the same time, the active concept of state-owned enterprise reform in Shanghai may also drive the relevant sectors to follow suit. For the insurance, banking and other sectors that fell today, it is expected that there will be a certain repair market tomorrow, but the overall increase may be limited.

-Technical analysis: From the technical trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, today's rise makes the index return to the top of the short-term moving average, and the moving average system presents a multi-position arrangement, which provides certain technical support for the subsequent rise. However, it should be noted that the trading volume of the index has not been significantly enlarged during the rising process, indicating that the market's willingness to chase up is not strong, which may limit the rising space of the index.